Is there a new batch of bluebloods ready to take over college basketball?
The Old Guard has had their run for far too long. It's time for a change.
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If there’s one overarching theme to the college basketball season — aside from, you know, the global pandemic — it’s that the titans of the sport are finally showing cracks in their seemingly impenetrable armor.
Duke, Kentucky, Michigan State and Kansas — also known as the participants in the Champions Classic — are a combined 31-27 this season. It’s safe to say that none of them will be even remotely close to sniffing a championship, and a few of them are facing a steep uphill climb to even make the NCAA Tournament.
There’s no need to dive into the issues that have caused them to struggle. Frankly, I’ve hit my saturation point of reading, watching, and listening to content that’s centered around what’s wrong with these teams and if they can turn it around. They’re not good! It’s fine!
Their struggles, however, are further proof that it’s becoming increasingly difficult to be dominant force in the sport year in and year out. Roster and coaching turnover, everchanging schematic trends, and shifting dynamics in the college sports landscape have made the sport increasingly volatile. And for a lot of the programs that have dominated the last 20+ years, unique circumstances present a shade of uncertainty towards their future standing atop the sport.
So with that, it’s time to reignite one of the everyone’s favorite topics in college hoops: Who is and isn’t a blueblood?
Here are the different classes of the college hoops elite and their outlook in the future. KenPom program rank in parentheses.
The Old Guard
Duke (1): As long as Coach K is still at Duke, the Blue Devils are going to be the premier name in the sport. Take advantage of the down season while you can because Duke already has two 5-star recruits committed to coming to Durham next season and they’re in the mix for a few more. The elephant in the room, however, is how long K decides to stick around and who he picks as his replacement. Would Duke still be the most luxurious name in the sport with Bobby Hurley or Jeff Capel running the show?
Kentucky (2): This season has been a disaster for John Calipari. The talent level is down and it’s giving off powerful 2013 vibes. With each subsequent loss, I wonder how much Cal gives thought to just saying fuck it and finally going to the NBA and assembling a roster of his former players. It’s going to be fun to prognosticate on whether Leon Rose and World Wide Wes will try to lure him to Knicks each offseason for eternity.
Kansas (3): Sooo what happens if the NCAA’s IARP brings the hammer down on Bill Self and Kansas? That might be the biggest off the court “what if” in college basketball right now. It won’t have any impact on this current season, but the looming investigation has already hurt Kansas’s recruiting and a harsh ruling would present one of the biggest shakeups in the sport if it were to result in Self’s ouster.
North Carolina (4): It’s moderately interesting that North Carolina and Duke both don’t have clear successors for the head coaching job whenever their respective legends decide to finally hang it up. Does UNC try to keep it within the Roy Williams coaching tree with a North Carolina Guy like Hubert Davis or Jared Haase? Or would they opt to swing for the fences to bring in a big name. There’s no telling when Daggum Roy will call it quits, but a continued stretch of down years like the last few brings the question to mind of what the next era of Tar Hell basketball might look like.
The Modern Darlings
Villanova (7): Recent national champion? Check (x2). NBA talent year in and year out? Check. Modern offense that’s virtually impossible to guard? A head coach whose name gets thrown into conversation any time there’s a marquee NBA job open? Check. Villanova ticks all of the boxes on the checklist of a program that’s at the top of the sport. If they’re able to win a 3rd title in five seasons, Jay Wright’s place on the all-time greats list is going to be a very lively discussion.
Gonzaga (10): I wrote about Gonzaga’s credentials as a blueblood in the early days of this newsletter, so there’s no need to rehash the argument. The fact that there are legitimate “Gonzaga vs. The Field” conversations being had essentially speaks for itself.
Virginia (15): It might not be pretty but dammit has Tony Bennett built a machine. The system is the system, but now that Bennett is getting elite level transfers like Sam Houser and starting to consistently get top-100 talent on the recruiting trail, he can let the development machine work its magic year in and year out.
We Got Next
Michigan (21): As a fan of another Big Ten team, it’s honestly bullshit that Juwan Howard is this good already. You can’t just come in and have a top five team and runaway with the conference title in your second year. It’s also not that fair that you can automatically start crushing the recruiting trail. Two 5-stars and the top 2021 recruiting class in the country? Get the fuck outta here dude. I’d rather deal with Beilein’s machine than this.
Baylor (41): So we’ve settled the “is Scott Drew a good coach debate” huh? Baylor is about to earn a one seed for the second straight year (they were on track for it last season before the halt), and they’re comfortably in a class of their own with Gonzaga for the teams to beat in March. On the list of best coaches to never make a Final Four, Drew looks like the best bet to break away from the bunch.
Texas Tech (46): You know your favorite team has a good coach when every moderately big program with a vacancy considers the option of “What if we just gave a blank check to Chris Bear and told him to name his price?” Beard is cut from a similar cloth as Bennett in that they both have a ruthlessly efficient defensive system and are starting to get elite talent. He flipped the switch QUICK in Lubbock and the only thing that might stop Texas Tech’s climb is one of the aforementioned Godfather offers to Beard that’s too good for him to pass up.
21st Century Titans
Michigan State (5): January. February. [Null set]. April. Barring a miracle, Sparty won’t be dancing for the first time since 1997, which was Tom Izzo’s second season in East Lansing. Is Izzo finally losing his touch? Not in the slightest. He’s still recruiting at an elite level, and if Emoni Bates ever decides to actually set foot on campus, we’ll get to see him coach arguably the most talented player to come through college basketball since Kevin Durant.
Florida (8): Mike White hasn’t hit the highs that Billy Donovan ever hit, but he’s done a solid job of making sure that Florida doesn’t fall off completely. Florida isn’t the most glamorous program, but it’s in a recruiting hotbed with institutional support that make it one of the best jobs in the SEC in the non-Kentucky division.
Louisville (9): Few programs have had such a quick ascension to from average college program to among the sport’s elite. Over the course of the last 20 years, Louisville went from a great CUSA team to national champions from the Big East to the AAC for a year to ACC contenders. That’s alot! Even without Rick Pitino, Louisville has reached a level where anyone can come in and have immediate success, which Chris Mack has already shown he can do.
Connecticut (18): UConn’s exiling to the AAC put the program’s future into question, but a return to the Big East has given it new life. It’s already paying dividends on the recruiting trail for Dan Hurley, and although it’s going to be a tall task to reach the National Championship caliber level of aughts, the Huskies are poised to return to being a force in the Big East for the foreseeable future.
The “Best” Jobs in the Country
Texas (11) & Ohio State (12): Head coaching gigs at football schools with monstrous budgets should always be in consideration for best jobs in the country. Everything is set up to win and win big while also not having to live up to unreasonable expectations Texas and Ohio State are the two best examples that have found varying degrees of success over the past two decades.
Longing For Days of the Past
Arizona (6): Similar to Kansas’s situation, the huge question mark surrounding Arizona is what the hell the IARP is going to do to Sean Miller and the program. Miller’s teams have had the talent to cut down the nets, but he’s underachieved in the eyes of some of the fanbase after failing to make the Final Four despite five trips to the second weekend. The aftermath of the IARP’s decision could make result in a rebuilding project for whoever winds up taking Miller’s spot should he get ousted.
UCLA (16): Do you ever stop and laugh at the fact that UCLA hired Mick Cronin? Not that Mick Cronin is a bad coach (he’s fine at worst), but his coaching philosophy doesn’t exactly mesh with the persona of Los Angeles. Cronin will win there, but will he win big? It’s going to be tough. The bigger issue for UCLA is that the Pac-12 has dropped in overall quality from where it was in the early to mid-2000s. The rest of the power conferences are just deeper and better at the top than the Pac-12 is now.
Indiana (23): Indiana is still an elite job, but it requires a certain type of head coach to be able to operate successfully in it. You have to be comfortable operating in a fish bowl, because the nostalgia for the BANNERS era and fanbase that demands immediate excellence will turn at the first inkling of mediocrity. It’s in a recruiting hotbed with a huge budget in the best conference in the country. A string of underachieving coaches has dimmed its shine, but the right guy could make it one of the best programs in the sport very quickly. That’s right Brad, it’s time to come home.
See you next Monday. Enjoy the hoops.
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