All gas no breaks: Winthrop's breakneck pursuit of an undefeated season
Pat Kelsey has turned the pace dial up to 11 and has Winthrop on its way to a dominant Big South season.
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In the spring of 2017, there was a buzz beginning to form around the Massachusetts basketball program. The school had a deal in place for Pat Kelsey to become its next head coach, giving them a young up-and-comer with a track record of success at Winthrop to help build the Minutemen into one of the Atlantic 10’s premier programs.
Roughly 48 hours later, Kelsey was back at Winthrop after deciding that the UMass job just wasn’t the right fit. Since he had only signed a Memorandum of Understanding and not the actual contract, Kelsey was able to leave UMass at the alter just minutes before the introductory press conference and return to his old fling.
Fast forward four years and Kelsey is on the verge of pushing Winthrop to heights that haven’t been reached in Rock Hill since the end of Gregg Marshall’s run. The Eagles improved to 11-0 after Sunday’s win against Gardner-Webb, making them one of just eight undefeated teams left in the country. And they’re doing it while playing at a breakneck tempo that’s faster than any other team in college basketball.
Across college basketball, the overall tempo of the game is up. Entering Sunday, the average tempo per team clocked in at 70.3 possessions a game according to KenPom’s historical trends data. It’s the first time that mark has broken 70 possessions since 2003, and it trails only 1998 (70.4) for the highest mark in the last 25 years.
Under Kelsey, Winthrop has almost always played “fast”. The Eagles have finished in the top 50 of adjusted tempo and possession length in each of the last six seasons. This season, however, they’re ramping it up faster than they ever have before. Through 11 games, the Eagles rank first in adjusted tempo (78.1 possessions per game) and second in average possession length at 14.0 seconds per possession. They rank 12th in the nation in scoring per game at 86.0 per contest and rank 85th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They’re daring teams to keep up, and so far it’s worked out in the favor.
Wanting to pick up the pace is a trope that you’ll hear ad nauseam during preseason media days. And it makes sense! Playing at a quicker pace can be enticing to recruits, and if you believe that you have a more talented team than your opponent, it makes sense to want to maximize the number of opportunities in which your team can use its talent edge to outplay your opponent. It’s one thing to want to push the pace, but it’s another to actually have the roster and personnel in place to make it an effective strategy. And that’s where Kelsey has found so much success this season.
The conductor of the bullet train that is Winthrop’s offense is as unconventional as they come in college basketball. At 6’7”, Chandler Vaudrin is a bonafide point forward that's become one of the best jacks-of-all-trades around. The senior is the only player in college basketball with multiple triple-doubles (two) this season — giving him seven for his career (three at Winthrop, four at Walsh University) — and he’s second in the country in assists per game at 8.5. He’s the only player in college basketball averaging at least 10 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists.
He’s the closest thing college basketball has to a Luka Doncic-type player, and that’s definitely not a lazy comparison because they’re both tall white guys with similar haircuts that do a little bit of everything on the court. His ability to grab a rebound and initiate the offense in transition has been paramount to Winthrop’s success. According to Hoop-Math, nearly a third (32.2%) of the Eagles’ field goal attempts come in transition, which ranks 17th in the country.
Vaudrin took a winding road to Winthrop, coming in as a transfer from Division II Walsh University. Dipping into the D-II water isn’t unfamiliar to Kelsey, and some of the guys like Vaudrin and Hunter Hale last season are proof that a coach can build a conference power by pursuing talent outside of the D-1 ranks or on the high school recruiting trail. Building out a deep rotation from anywhere possible has resulted in one of the deepest benches in the country, which has been vital to Winthrop’s success this season.
Playing at the speed that they do, Winthrop needs fresh legs to keep the foot on the gas pedal at all times. Kelsey likes to play a deep bench, and there are 11 guys that are seeing at least 10 minutes of action per game. Of those 11, nine of them average at least five points per game, and only three players average in double figures.
One of those players in double figures is Adonis Arms, yet another Division II transfer. The redshirt senior did a stint at Mesa Community College before landing at Northwest Nazarene University before finally coming to Rock Hill. Kelsey has unleashed Arms as a super-sub of sorts, allowing him to come in and get his buckets in droves. In just under 18 minutes per game, Arms is the second-leading scorer on the roster at 12.2 points per game. Their leading scorer, Charles Falden, is a senior that’s developed from a spot contributor off the bench as a freshman into a knockdown shooter that can feast when defenses collapse on Vaudrin’s drives into the paint.
Add in DJ Burns — a bruising senior that transferred from Tennessee — and some international flavor from Kyle Zunic (Australia) and Michael Anumba (Italy) among other key contributors, and you’ll see a roster that is as good of an example as any in college basketball for building a diverse and talented roster via all available avenues.
So what’s the endgame for Winthrop? Where will playing at a frenetic pace take them?
For one, they’re romping through the Big South. Sunday’s win against Gardner Webb bumped their record up to 8-0 in conference play, and there’s the possibility of an undefeated season that increases with each subsequent game. KenPom currently gives Winthrop a 19.9% chance of finishing the regular season without a blemish. They’re far and away the best team in the conference, but all it takes is one off game to slip up. There have already been a few close calls, and the implementation of games on back-to-back days this season makes for an interesting dynamic.
Why stop there though? An undefeated Big South season would be nice, but the NCAA Tournament is what matters.
Fortunately, Winthrop is in a position for a favorable postseason draw if their current state of play continues. They entered Sunday ranked 48th in the NET, and the early returns from the Bracket Matrix have the Eagles on the 12-seed line. It’s not unreasonable to think that they could continue to climb, especially once the bubble starts to cannibalize itself.
Should they make the NCAA Tournament, Winthrop will be a trendy upset pick for good reason. And should they advance, the buzz around Pat Kelsey being one of the rising stars in coaching will only grow louder. His name will surely pop up once the coaching carousel gets going, and he might be presented with an offer that’s simply too good to pass up this time around.
Until then, Winthrop will continue to push its opponents to the brink as it chases a rare feat in an unprecedented season.
Espresso Shots
Due to a schedule that was limited to only Patriot League games, Boston University was one of the last schools in the country to have its season debut. That in and of itself isn’t terribly significant, but there’s one differentiator for the Terriers: masks. Boston University's policy on face coverings mandates that they be worn at all times in any shared spaces, which includes spaces off campus when a student is representing the university in an athletic event. Opponents are also required to wear masks as the visiting team, but that apparently didn’t hinder Holy Cross as they bounced back to win on Tuesday.
In case you’ve been living under a rock all week and missed the news, the NCAA announced the entire NCAA Tournament will be held in Indianapolis. If only there was a college basketball blogger with a weekly newsletter that lived in Indianapolis and could provide a handy Visitor’s Guide in a future edition of the said newsletter. Someone should look into that.
Do you think UConn fans are happy to be back in the Big East? After an 18-point second half comeback against Marquette on Tuesday, Huskies fans took to Twitter to partake in the consumption of that celebratory beverage we all know and love: hot sauce.
https://t.co/LcezPctOjvIf they win tonight I'll film myself eating a spoonful of hot saucePenfield @BpenfieldJThe trend continued after Saturday’s thrashing of Butler in Hinkle Fieldhouse:
Really good stuff.
Game-winning dunk? Game-winning dunk.
Perhaps the best story in college basketball last week came from a Texas team that’s looking more and more like a legitimate Final Four contender. On the three-year anniversary of being diagnosed with leukemia, Andrew Jones stepped up and sunk a game-winner to take down No. 14 West Virginia in Morgantown.
On this day three years ago, Shaka Smart told @TexasMBB that Andrew Jones had been diagnosed with leukemia. Today, @DrewdotCash surpassed 1,000 career points and sunk the game-winner to lift Texas above West Virginia. #AJ1KThe postgame reaction in the locker room is as good as you’d expect.
Sports? They’re good sometimes.
Bill Walton remains a national treasure.
I know the pandemic has had a massive effect on athletic department budgets — especially at smaller schools — but surely Louisiana could have scraped together a few more pennies to keep the lights on for the entirety of Friday’s game against Little Rock.
Fortunately, there weren’t any issues during Saturday’s game, which Little Rock bounce back to win in overtime.
See you next Monday. Enjoy the hoops.
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