In nearly every aspect of life, almost every decision we make requires us to grapple with some form of cognitive dissonance.
Buying a fancy new electronic product because the holiday deal you saw was simply too good to pass up? The manufacturer’s labor practices might not be on the up and up. The company for whom you work countless hours to create shareholder value? Your CEO might be giving some of that money to someone whose beliefs don’t align with yours. Going to your favorite local restaurant during the middle of a global pandemic despite the guidance from Those Who Would Know What You Probably Should And Shouldn’t Be Doing saying not to and spending a couple of hours inside at your table while your server puts their health on the line just so they can pay their rent every month? Look, those Chili’s chicken crispers aren’t going to eat themselves. Plus you had a coupon for 10% off your meal!
College basketball is long past the point of no return. The season is here, and despite having the benefit of a longer runway than every other sport to prepare for how to pull it off under these unique circumstances, it’s still going to be an absolute clusterfuck.
The lack of a set of universal protocols for how to proceed forward has left the programs and conferences to fend for themselves. There is no one-size-fits-all solution for testing, contact tracing, when to shut down programs and when not to, etc. The protocols at Kansas or Kentucky probably aren’t going to be feasible at a WAC or Sun Belt school. A Big East school can be more flexible with scheduling without having to rely on scoring buy games to keep the athletic department afloat as a Southland school might. The coronavirus is another chapter in the book of the story of The Haves vs. The Haves Not in college basketball.
Is this all just a meta-commentary on how the coronavirus and failures of the U.S. Government have impacted different socioeconomic backgrounds in the country? Folks, I’ll let you be the judge.
Should college basketball be happening right now? There’s no right or wrong answer. You won’t gain or lose points on the Pandemic Morality Scorecard for thinking either way. Everyone has set in stone where they fall on that spectrum, and there’s no point in trying to pull someone to your side and hope they change their opinions to align with yours. If your prerogative is to blindly express your excitement for your beloved sport’s arrival and attach your shtick to reporting on the effects the pandemic is having because everything is a Branding Opportunity, have at it. If you want to proclaim that you couldn’t possibly participate in this sport this season given everything going on in the world, be my guest.
Most of us will fall somewhere in between. We’ll hold our noses and watch and cheer and post about college basketball because deep down we love it, flaws and all. College basketball has always had problems, many of which are becoming more prominent year after year. The cognitive dissonance becomes more omnipresent with each passing season, and this season, in particular, is going to put it to the test.
When the season tips off on Wednesday, it’s okay to weird about watching. It’s to be expected. But it’s also okay to feel a sense of excitement and joy, especially for the players who—more than anything—just want to go out and play the damn game that they love.
Nothing about this season is going to be normal, but again, nothing is normal right now. We’ve learned to become comfortable with the normalness of the unnormal.
So get comfortable and take your seat. The show is about to start.
Programming note: The open each week isn’t going to have such a dark or heavy tone to it. This will likely be a one-off situation, but it would have been ignorant to not even mention the Audacity Of It All as the offseason winds down.
Let’s get to some actual college basketball talk now that we’ve hit on the DOOM AND GLOOM part of it all.
Espresso Shots
Espresso Shots are going to be quick hitters, tidbits, newsy, or noteworthy items each week that might not warrant a lengthier writeup. They’re called Espresso Shots because what’s the point of sharing your content with a loyal audience if you aren’t going to add your shtick or flair to it as part of a larger overall theme of that content.
Gonzaga is your No. 1 team in the preseason AP Poll, which means that your average college basketball fan is already saying that they’re overrated and going to choke in March because THEY AIN’T PLAY NOBODY PAWLLLL. That’s incorrect. Gonzaga has actually outperformed expectations in March by 2.5 wins since 2010. The Bulldogs have scheduled games against top 10 teams in No. 2 Baylor, No. 5 Iowa, and No. 6 Kansas. There’s a reason that Vegas has Gonzaga as one of the favorites to win it all. It’s because they’re going to be damn good.
Speaking of scheduled games! Who knows how much of the non-conference portion of the season will actually get played. By the time I finish writing this, several games or MTEs will have been canceled. Consider bookmarking this handy College Basketball Quarantine List created by Twitter user @SBUnfurled to keep track of what programs are up and running or not so you don’t have to constantly read tweets that list how many programs are on pause. Holy shit what a bleak sentence that is. 2020!!!
Basketball Joe would like to extend a warm welcome to Division I’s newest participants: Dixie State, Tarleton State, Bellarmine, and UC San Diego. Sorry that a pandemic had to go and kill the vibe.
Basketball Joe would also like to extend its condolences to the programs that have decided to sit out the season: all of the Ivy League, Maryland Eastern Shore, and Bethune Cookman. Stay safe and stay healthy.
KenPom has graphs now! kpgraphs.com gives you the capabilities to visualize some of the data that the main site tracks. For example, here’s how much defense Iowa is not going to play this year compared to its Big Ten counterparts.
Sticking with Iowa and defense (or lack thereof), it’s hard to buy the Hawkeyes as a legitimate national contender because of that. In the KenPom era (2002-present), the champion with the lowest-ranked defense was the 2009 North Carolina team, which ranked 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD). In KenPom’s preseason rankings, Iowa enters at No. 72 in AdjD. Their best finish under Fran McCaffery was 24th in 2009, and they’ve had finishes of 123rd, 242nd, 111st, and 97th over the last four seasons. That’s not going to get it done. The Hawkeyes have the potential to be the best offense in college basketball, but that’s not going to matter if they can’t get stops when it counts. That’s why you should be wary of putting your faith in Iowa’s national title aspirations.
Here are the ongoing regular-season conference title (or shares of the title) streaks entering the season (consecutive titles in parentheses): America East (Vermont, 4), AAC (Houston, 2), ASUN (Liberty, 2), Big Ten (Michigan State, 3), Big East (Villanova, 2), Big South (Radford, 2), Big West (UC Irvine, 2), CAA (Hofstra, 2), Horizon (Wright State, 2), Ohio Valley (Belmont & Murray State, 2), Patriot (Colgate, 2), Summit (South Dakota State, 3), SWAC (Prairie View A&M, 2), WAC (New Mexico State, 3), WCC (Gonzaga, 8)
Who will lead the nation in dunks this year? Obi Toppin took home the crown last year with 107, according to T-Rank’s database. Here are a few candidates to be the dunkiest player in college hoops this year: Ruot Manyang (Little Rock, 55 dunks in 19-20), Jubrile Belo (Montana State, 54), Jericho Sims (Texas, 52), Feron Hunt (SMU, 52), Trayce Jackson-Davis (Indiana, 49), Scottie Barnes (Florida State, No. 7 overall recruit)
Billy Gillespie is back in college basketball for the first time since the 2012-13 season. In case you forgot, his history includes a DUI and allegations of mistreating players at nearly every stop along the way. This year, he’s coaching Tarleton State, who as mentioned above is making the leap to Division I. Time will tell if the hire was worth it. Beware the whitewashing profile of Gillespie that will assuredly come if Tarleton State has any modicum of success this year.
Gillespie isn’t the only former coach making a return to the sidelines this year. Rick Pitino (Iona), Bryce Drew (Grand Canyon), Todd Lickliter (Evansville), Andy Kennedy (UAB), Rob Jeter (Western Illinois), and Joe Scott (Air Force).
Things are normal, things are fine. It’s going to be fascinating to see how the Selection Committee handles, uh, let’s call them unique circumstances like this when it comes time to start evaluating resumes.
Remember when I said that the lack of universal protocols has made everything a complete mess? This is a perfect example of that.
If you’re going to self-impose a postseason ban, it’s a savvy move to do it in a year in which the format and criteria to qualify are significantly different. It’s also savvy to do it in a year in which you’d likely be a fringe NCAA Tournament team anyway.
It’s going to be fascinating to track different trends across college basketball to see the impact of inconsistent practice and travel schedules. Last season, offensive efficiency was the lowest it’s been since 2013. Three-point shooting was also the lowest it’s ever been since the inception of the three-point line in 1987.
Thanks for starting your week off with a cup of Basketball Joe. If you haven’t already, consider subscribing to get the newsletter in your inbox every Monday. Unlike an actual cup of Joe, it’s free!
If you’re already a subscriber, thanks for reading, and please considering sharing with your friends and other college hoops junkies. I’d also love to hear any tips, feedback, suggestions for topics, etc. Let’s chat on Twitter (@ChrisSchutte3).
See you next Monday. Enjoy the hoops.